Small Risk For Severe Storms Ahead Of Cold Front

Update 3:09 PM. Updated SPC graphic for Alabama, no other changes.

SUMMARY: Ahead of a strong cold front, showers and thunderstorms will occur late this evening into the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe especially across northwest Alabama.

NWS Graphics:

NWS Huntsville Svr 10/15/21
A few strong/severe storms are expected later this evening/overnight as a cold front sweeps across the region. The main threats with the strongest storms will be damaging winds, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Stay weather aware this evening

TIMING: Beginning around 9:00 PM this evening (10/15) and lasting through 2:00 AM across northwest Alabama.

Potential Hazards: Heavy rainfall and strong-locally damaging winds gusts from 40-60 MPH. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Potential Impacts: Heavy rainfall along with gusty winds can knock down trees into power lines, causing power outages. Heavy rainfall could cause flooding in some areas. Damaging winds are winds of 58 MPH or stronger, which could damage roofs, outbuildings, sidings, gutters, sheds, and trees. Gusty winds are also possible outside of thunderstorms. Tornadoes – if any – will be brief and weak but is still enough to cause damage to mobile homes and roofs.

CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL HAZARDS: 9/10. Very confident.

Recommended Preparedness Actions: Stay weather aware this evening as the cold front gets closer. Stay inside, and have multiple ways to receive warnings should one be issued. Take the warning seriously. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued well ahead of the cold front as the storms get closer. If a Tornado Warning is issued – take the Warning seriously, do not wait to see or wait for confirmation because this will be a late-night event where tornadoes will be difficult to confirm.

DISCUSSION

SPC has placed a small corner of the state in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk going across the rest of Coverage Zone 1. Seeing no Slight Risk in Coverage Zone 2 will leave any discussions for Central Alabama out. HRRR model data shows storms coming in the form of a line expected to reach the AL/MS border around 03Z (9:00 pm). SBCAPE at the arrival will range from 500-1,000 J/KG and quickly dissipate with the arrival of the front. Updraft Helicity values are not overall impressive but are there nonetheless. This ties in with the STP values at about 2/10, which leaves a non-but-not-zero chance of a tornado as the cold front gets closer.

SCP however is favoring supercell development with the line, but again, it quickly dissipates with the arrival of the cold front. Hard to tie these parameters perfectly together. Graphics below. Stay safe, and get ready for fall after this cold front.

Flash Flood Watch In Effect

Several days of repeated rainfall, where some of the rain could be moderate to heavy at times, could lead to instances of flash flooding across the area. Flash flooding is a dangerous situation. Remember, turn around don’t drown!

The Flash Flood Watch is for the entire Coverage Area.

flash flood watch hun
Flash Flood Watch – NWS Huntsville
flash flood watch bmx
Flash Flood Watch – NWS Birmingham

The Weather Prediction Center has put in a Day 2-3 Moderate/Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. The highest amounts are forecasted to be across northeast Alabama. This indicates where flash flooding is most likely to occur.

WPC Day 1
WPC Day 1 Outlook
WPC Day 2
WPC Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3
WPC Day 3 Outlook

Flash Flood Watch In Effect

Flash Flood Watch in effect for our far northern Alabama Coverage Area counties until 7:00 pm Sunday. Rainfall rates could be from 3-4 inches Saturday morning through Sunday evening, leading to the potential for flash flooding.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and southern middle
  Tennessee, including the following areas, in Alabama, Colbert,
  DeKalb, Franklin AL, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone,
  Madison, Marshall and Morgan. In southern middle Tennessee,
  Franklin TN, Lincoln and Moore.

* Through Sunday evening.

* Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning
  through Sunday evening are expected to produce flash flooding
  across the watch area. Widespread 3-4 inches of rain is forecast
  with localized higher amounts possible. Efficient rainfall rates
  may exceed 2 inches/hr. Runoff may also lead to rises on area
  rivers, creeks, and streams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Tropical Storm Ida Update

The center of Tropical Storm Ida is currently located near Jackson, MS with maximum wind speeds of 30 MPH. The Tropical Storm Warnings/Storm Surge Warnings are set to expire at 12:30pm. Ida wrecked havoc on New Orleans and knocked out power to 100% of the city, according to Entergy. For an update on restoration from Entergy, see this article:

Closer to home, we are expected to start feeling the impacts from Ida tonight. Wind Advisories and Flash Flood Watches are up for almost our entire Coverage Area:

Tropical Storm Ida – NWS Birmingham
Tropical Storm Ida – NWS Huntsville
Tropical Storm Ida Track – RadarOmega

RAINFALL: The biggest story of any Tropical System is the rainfall. We’re looking to receive anywhere from 4-6″ on the western half of the state, and 2-4″ elsewhere. Flash flooding will also be a concern in some areas that receive repeated heavy rainfall.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]
[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]

WINDS: Will begin to pick up as Ida nears. Currently the forecast is for 30+ MPH winds with gusts up to 40. Winds could be felt as early as 8:00 PM Monday for west/northwest Alabama. Winds of this magnitude can easily topple over trees and power lines. Trees with saturated ground could fall more easily.

time of arrival graphic

TORNADOES: With any tropical system – especially on the outer edge of the system – there is the potential for tornadoes. Any tornadoes that do develop will be brief and weak (70+ MPH winds)

Please stay weather aware during this time. Heed all Warnings and have multiple ways to receive them.

Ida Makes Landfall; Potential Local Impacts

As of 12:10 PM August 29th, Hurricane Ida has made landfall as a Category 4 Major Hurricane. The image below is the direct text from the National Hurricane Center.


Around our neck of the woods, we will start seeing impacts from Ida Monday night and Tuesday from west to east. Threats will include flash flooding, strong gusty winds, and a few tornadoes. Flood Watches are in effect for portions of west Alabama up to Interstate 65

[U: Extended] Another Day Of Dangerous Heat

A large chunk of our Coverage Zones are under a Heat Advisory due to heat indices expected to reach 106F. This includes the Alabama counties of

Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL, Lawrence, Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Perry, Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, Tallapoosa. Marengo. Dallas, Autauga, Lowndes. Elmore, Montgomery, Macon, Bullock, Lee, Russell-Pike, Barbour,

Some counties are not in our Coverage Zones but have been included in this message

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values in the 105 to 107 degree range are
  expected across portions of the advisory area.

* WHERE...Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL and Lawrence Counties.

* WHEN...From Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible.
To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
 in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
 should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an
 emergency! Call 9 1 1.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values near 105 each afternoon.

* WHERE...Blount, Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, St.
  Clair, Clay, Randolph and Chambers Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
 rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

ALZ011>015-022>025-027-030>037-039>050-280400-
/O.EXT.KBMX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210729T0000Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-
Shelby-Talladega-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-
Tallapoosa-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,
Double Springs, Jasper, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham,
Hoover, Columbiana, Pelham, Alabaster, Talladega, Sylacauga,
Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, Marion, Centreville,
Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, Dadeville, Demopolis, Linden,
Selma, Prattville, Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee,
Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Auburn, Opelika,
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
118 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values 104 to 108 each afternoon.

* WHERE...Portions of west and south central Alabama.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
 rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Strong-Severe Storms, Flooding Concerns This Evening Into Overnight

Today’s Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts most of Coverage Zone 1 and portions of Coverage Zone 2 in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening, tonight and into the overnight hours.

The highest severe weather threat will remain to our north in the Slight Risk area.

Anticipated risks are 50-60 MPH wind gusts along with locally heavy rainfall. Parameters are not in place for tornadoes but remember severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. We have also been highlighted in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center.

Additionally, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Marshall counties as torrential rainfall from Claudette impacted the area and more heavy rainfall is on the way.

Flash Flood Watch In Effect

Counties Affected: Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, Cullman

Alabama Hazards
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
417 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

ALZ008>010-016-212045-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0007.210622T0000Z-210623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-
Including the cities of Arab, Fort Payne, Guntersville, Cullman,
Boaz, Rainsville, Albertville, and Scottsboro
417 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Alabama and
  northeast Alabama, including the following areas, in north central
  Alabama, Cullman. In northeast Alabama, DeKalb, Jackson and
  Marshall.

* From this evening through Tuesday evening

* Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon
  and evening, ahead of a slow-moving cold front. An additional 1-2
  inches of rain is expected, along with locally higher amounts.
  With nearly saturated soil conditions in the watch area, the
  rainfall will be efficiently converted to runoff, increasing the
  risk for life-threatening flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.