Severe Weather Risk 2/15 – 2/16

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SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING

Windy conditions will arrive in the evening ahead of a severe line of storms. The storms are anticipated to arrive around 10pm and progress to the east. Damaging straight line winds of 60-70 MPH, a few brief, isolated tornadoes and flash flooding will all be possible with this line.

Additional rainfall in addition to rainfall we received this week will agitate creeks and rivers and elevate the flash flooding threat. Saturated soils will make trees more likely to fall, also elevating the damaging wind threat.

The approach of a storm system will produce windy conditions across the Tennessee Valley Saturday night, even outside of any thunderstorm development. These winds are called NON-THUNDERSTORM winds. These are forecast to reach gusts of 30-40 mph outside of any thunderstorm activity. Be sure to secure loose, outdoor items and exercise caution if driving in high-profile vehicles. Additionally, saturated soils will allow an increased risk of downed trees and subsequent power outages.
Heavy rain fall is again forecast on Saturday with an additional 1-2 inches of rain forecast. With significant rainfall received earlier in the week, a low chance of flooding will again be a concern on Saturday. Please make sure to check back for the latest forecast updates and remember to NEVER drive around barricades. TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move across the Tennessee Valley Saturday night, bringing the following threats: Damaging winds (medium-high confidence), heavy rainfall (medium-high confidence), tornadoes (low confidence), and hail (very low confidence). While we have medium to high confidence in the line of strong to severe storms overnight, we have very LOW confidence in additional strong storms ahead of the main line. Overall, most likely timing of severe weather is forecast to be 10 PM to 3 AM- moving in from the northwest to the southeast. Be sure to know where to go to shelter, stay weather aware, and have multiple ways to receive warnings
There is a level 2 to 3 risk, out of 5, for severe storms Saturday night through Sunday morning, February 15th and 16th across all of Central Alabama. Storms may move in as early as 9 PM Saturday night in the west and end as late as 4 AM Sunday morning over the southeast. Threats include tornadoes and damaging, straight-line winds. Check back for updates and ensure you have ways to get weather alerts while sleeping.