SUMMARY: A strong storm system will bring freezing rain to the region on Saturday afternoon. A rush of warm air from the Gulf is currently forecast to change the freezing rain to all liquid throughout the day on Saturday. Northwest and northeast Alabama will see less of a changeover from sleet to rain than other areas. In these areas, there is the potential for significant snow/ice/sleet accumulation from 0.25″-1″.
Behind the precipitation on Sunday afternoon, temperatures will begin to plummet into the single digits. There may be a brief transition from rain to snow/sleet, but nothing significant is expected at this time on Sunday afternoon.
IMPACTS: Some travel issues can be expected where precipitation falls and begins to freeze. Ice on branches and power lines can cause power outages. Black ice will be possible on Sunday as temperatures plummet and any treatment on roadways becomes less effective. Temperatures of this degree can lead to hypothermia on exposed skin.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS: Plan ahead. Do not travel unless necessary. The roads should remain open to first responders and utility companies that may need to address power outages. If you must travel, have a survival kit including a blanket, flashlight, and gloves in case you become stranded. Plan for prolonged power outages, and be sure you are stocked up on essentials such as water and food that can be prepared without electricity. This does not mean buying all the bread, milk, and eggs at every grocery store like you all do.
OVERVIEW OF WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
For the Ice Storm Warning (NW AL)
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one quarter of an inch to one inch.
* WHERE...Colbert, Franklin AL, and Lauderdale Counties.
* WHEN...From midnight Friday Night to 6 PM CST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Expect power outages that last more than a day and extensive tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. Significant cold weather is expected after this winter weather, so any power outages may result in dangerous indoor temperatures.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. Prepare for extended power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
For the Winter Weather Advisory
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6
PM CST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between 0.05-0.10 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
* WHEN...From midnight Friday Night to 6 PM CST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Some roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Expect some power outages and
tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be difficult.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
For the Winter Storm Watch
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Snow and sleet accumulations up to half an inch and ice accumulations up to one quarter inch.
* WHERE...Blount, Cherokee, Etowah, Calhoun and Cleburne Counties
* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
DISCUSSION: While the overall blend of forecasts has become confident, there is still some uncertainty in the overall model guidance for this event. The EURO is known to handle winter weather events best, unlike the NAM and GFS, so it has been the “go-to”. Other medium-range models are in fairly good agreement on the warm nose of air rushing in from the Gulf, which should start changing the sleet to all-liquid by Saturday afternoon for the I-65 corridor and the Tennessee Valley. This would just lead to a cold rain and temperatures remaining above freezing with little to no impact. South of the Tennessee River is the fine line where it could be all rain or a mix of sleet/ice, which is where the Winter Storm Watch was issued. I want to remind everyone that a Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade from a Winter Storm Watch. Watches are issued 48-60 hours before the onset of precipitation. Advisories are 24-47 hours in advance. Everyone needs to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best, as this forecast can still change.
