[U: Extended] Another Day Of Dangerous Heat

A large chunk of our Coverage Zones are under a Heat Advisory due to heat indices expected to reach 106F. This includes the Alabama counties of

Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL, Lawrence, Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Perry, Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, Tallapoosa. Marengo. Dallas, Autauga, Lowndes. Elmore, Montgomery, Macon, Bullock, Lee, Russell-Pike, Barbour,

Some counties are not in our Coverage Zones but have been included in this message

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values in the 105 to 107 degree range are
  expected across portions of the advisory area.

* WHERE...Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL and Lawrence Counties.

* WHEN...From Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible.
To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
 in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
 should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an
 emergency! Call 9 1 1.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values near 105 each afternoon.

* WHERE...Blount, Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, St.
  Clair, Clay, Randolph and Chambers Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
 rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

ALZ011>015-022>025-027-030>037-039>050-280400-
/O.EXT.KBMX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210729T0000Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-
Shelby-Talladega-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-
Tallapoosa-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,
Double Springs, Jasper, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham,
Hoover, Columbiana, Pelham, Alabaster, Talladega, Sylacauga,
Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, Marion, Centreville,
Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, Dadeville, Demopolis, Linden,
Selma, Prattville, Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee,
Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Auburn, Opelika,
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
118 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values 104 to 108 each afternoon.

* WHERE...Portions of west and south central Alabama.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
 stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
 rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Strong-Severe Storms, Flooding Concerns This Evening Into Overnight

Today’s Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts most of Coverage Zone 1 and portions of Coverage Zone 2 in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening, tonight and into the overnight hours.

The highest severe weather threat will remain to our north in the Slight Risk area.

Anticipated risks are 50-60 MPH wind gusts along with locally heavy rainfall. Parameters are not in place for tornadoes but remember severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. We have also been highlighted in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center.

Additionally, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Marshall counties as torrential rainfall from Claudette impacted the area and more heavy rainfall is on the way.

Flash Flood Watch In Effect

Counties Affected: Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, Cullman

Alabama Hazards
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
417 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

ALZ008>010-016-212045-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0007.210622T0000Z-210623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-
Including the cities of Arab, Fort Payne, Guntersville, Cullman,
Boaz, Rainsville, Albertville, and Scottsboro
417 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Alabama and
  northeast Alabama, including the following areas, in north central
  Alabama, Cullman. In northeast Alabama, DeKalb, Jackson and
  Marshall.

* From this evening through Tuesday evening

* Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon
  and evening, ahead of a slow-moving cold front. An additional 1-2
  inches of rain is expected, along with locally higher amounts.
  With nearly saturated soil conditions in the watch area, the
  rainfall will be efficiently converted to runoff, increasing the
  risk for life-threatening flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Website Redesign Now Live And A Few Notable Team Changes

If you’re reading this, something is different. Yes – a lot is different – from visual changes to a ton of fixes, improvements, enhancements, additions, behind-the-scenes, let’s get to all the changes right now!

Website Redesign

Right off the bat, you’ll see the website looks very new, more compact, not as stretchy. That’s right! This has been about 5 months’ worth of work with a theme called GeneratePress and a Page Builder called Elementor. This retires our old theme named Newsup, and our old Page Builder named Themify.

  • All Pages – including the Home Page – have been redesigned to be more compact, and to be more “visual”. This is why things like pretty clouds will appear on each page/section. Admit it, it’s pretty.
  • QR codes have been added to multiple pages so you can open links on your mobile device.
  • Page issues have been fixed. Including but not limited to the Severe Page not showing a severe image and the NOAA Weather Radio Page not showing NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters have been fixed. The Severe Page now shows an image from NWS – this is a permanent fix! I sincerely apologize to those of you that may have been following links from Twitter in hopes of an image.
  • You seen that NOAA Weather Radio Page? It’s remarkable if I do say so myself.
  • How about that new Live Page?
  • The Contact Page now has more content. Contact information was moved from our Live Page to our Contact Page because it just makes more sense. A few visual tweaks have also been made to this page.
  • Visual improvements made to the About Page, including showing more accurate information about our Team Members, and showing the roles/positions.
  • Visual improvements to the Application Page, the Requirements section is collapsable, and the Expectations are more straightforward.
  • Blog Page shows posts by category in a carousel. Keep in mind. Posts from 2020 have been archived, so many things might not be showing up here.

Why the change? Why Elementor and GeneratePress?

We’ll get to that later.

Facebook Messenger Widget Throughout Website

We have added this widget so you can interact with us directly on Messenger. A Messenger account is recommended but you can also continue as a guest. Interacting as a guest only makes the chat visible for 24 hours. Otherwise, start a conversation with us right from Messenger, our automated assistant will let you know we will get back to you shortly, then you will hear from an actual human being!

Alabama Weather Prediction is now on Telegram

As part of our goal to expand to more chat/media platforms, we are now also on Telegram. Telegram is a free universal application (iOS, Windows, Android) for chatting, voice and video. Also available on the web. Very simple to get started, just go to Telegram: Contact @awpwx, or go to the Contact Page and click Telegram. Registration is required for this.

Telegram currently shows posts as soon as they’re made, but no other automations at this time.

Behind-the-scenes

Now for the non-important stuff that most of you probably aren’t going to read – and that’s okay.

  • PHP has been updated to 8.0. No issues have been identified over the past several months.
  • Cache has been disabled site-wide. Again, this was tested over several months and we have actually seen an improvement in loading times with our new themes and builder

Why the change?

So, the old theme we had, Newsup, was not nearly as customizable. It was also very stretched out and seemed to take up your whole screen. It also wasn’t responsive to any changes that we attempted to apply. We were also looking for a new Page Builder and found that Elementor works great with GeneratePress. GeneratePress is also very lightweight, so Elementor does not need to do much work as far as caching is concerned. To put matters simple, I combined these together to come up with the solution of a) fixing any website issues b) implementing the new website layout and c) deciding if cache needed to be modified, tweaked, or disabled altogether. I’m not gonna lie, cache is a big headache and probably more trouble than what it’s worth, which is why I decided to disable it to see what happened. Well, this was the end result.

Tech talk. Look at this loading speed difference I snapshotted. Left side is Staging website, right side is old, Live website. It loads faster when cache is off site-wide!


Team Changes

There are some changes to our Coverage Area that are worth mentioning.

Alabama Weather Prediction Coverage Area

First off, and most importantly, we are dropping support for Mississippi and Tennessee Counties to focus solely on Alabama.

Next, you’ll see we are starting to implement “Zones”. We will start using this kind of language when we cover severe weather events with things such as

Storms will be moving into Coverage Zone 1 here in the next several hours and we will bring you live updates

A Slight Risk is in place for most of Coverage Zone 1, 2, 3, etc

Instead of

Storms are moving across the Coverage Area

Slight Risk in place for this day for portions of the Coverage Area

See, this is just too bland? Let’s be more specific and narrow it down.

In coordination with @westaltracker who is in charge of alerts_awpwx on Twitter, you should start to see more of this language in the coming weeks.

Enhanced Risk In Place for Tuesday 5/4

Enhanced Risk in place for most of the Coverage Area on Tuesday, May 4th. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat, but there will be a secondary threat for tornadoes.

Summary: Thunderstorms are expected to come in 2 waves on Tuesday, the first wave will be in the morning with gusty to damaging winds being the primary threat. After this passes, the atmosphere will destabilize and make room for the next wave of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential for produce damaging winds gust, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

NWS Graphics

NWS Huntsville 5/4

NWS Birmingham 5/4 PM

NWS Birmingham 5/4 AM

SPC Outlook

 ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   FAR SOUTHEAST
   ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...ALABAMA AND
   NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
   Tuesday from the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the
   Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau regions.  This will include a risk
   for large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...

   The severe weather forecast for Tuesday remains complex with
   lingering uncertainty. Most of the forecast changes for this cycle
   are peripheral/modest for the Slight and Enhanced risk areas. The
   Marginal risk area has been expanded quite a bit to the east, from
   the South Carolina to Delmarva coast. 

   On a broader scale, an upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest
   to southwest TX/northeast Mexico will migrate eastward, becoming
   oriented from the upper Great Lakes to GA by Wednesday morning.
   Several smaller shortwave perturbations are forecast to eject
   northeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley to the lower Great
   Lakes vicinity as well as portions of the central
   Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. At the surface, a seasonally
   moist airmass will be in place, with mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints as
   far north as the TN Valley and into the Carolinas/Chesapeake Bay
   vicinity. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will spread further north into
   the lower Great Lakes eastward toward the I-95 corridor from
   Philadelphia into southern NJ. Meanwhile, an EML characterized by
   steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will advect eastward
   across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley, aiding in strong
   destabilization with MLCAPE values forecast around 2000-3000 J/kg.
   Weaker, but still sufficient lapse rates will exist across parts of
   the Ohio Valley eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast. A belt of
   increasing southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread much of the
   lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the main upper
   trough, providing further support for organized convection. As a
   result, a broad area of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
   across a large part of the southeastern US into the Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast...

   The greatest/most concentrated severe threat on Tuesday appears to
   extend parts of AR/LA eastward into TN/AL/GA. Some uncertainty
   continues across this region as ongoing convection is expected over
   parts of the area during the morning hours as an MCS spreads
   eastward across the Ohio Valley and perhaps parts of the TN Valley.
   How this system from the Day 1/Monday period evolves will have some
   impact on how further convection develops later in the
   morning/afternoon as the airmass recovers ahead of the main surface
   cold front spreading southeast through the afternoon. Little capping
   is expected across the area and pockets of stronger heating will
   likely result in early development of thunderstorm clusters across
   parts of MS/AL/GA. While effective shear will initially be modest,
   this should rapidly increase through the morning. This initial
   activity will pose a threat for all severe hazards, including hail,
   damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

   By late morning/early afternoon, convection is expected to develop
   along the surface cold front from parts of AR into far east TX. Some
   of this activity will likely remain cellular initially amid
   supercell wind profiles. With midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km
   this activity could produce significant hail, in addition to
   damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. With time, stronger
   forcing and boundary-parallel deep layer flow should result in
   upscale growth into bowing/linear segments as convection shifts
   eastward across MS/LA and into AL during the afternoon/evening. This
   will increase the potential for more widespread damaging gusts, and
   favorable low level speed shear should continue to support
   mesovortex tornado potential along the line. 

   ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...

   A moist boundary layer (low to mid 60s F dewpoints) beneath modest
   midlevel lapse rates will be in place on Tuesday amid 35-50 kt
   850-700 mb west/southeasterly flow. MLCAPE values around 1500-2500
   J/kg are forecast as pockets of strong heating result in steepening
   low level lapse rates. Low level flow will remain weak, but marginal
   supercell wind profiles should support isolated to scattered
   organized thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A
   well-mixed boundary layer, with inverted-v low level thermodynamic
   profiles indicate potential for locally damaging gusts. Some of the
   stronger cells also could produce marginally sever hail. 

   Some guidance suggests that the morning MCS over parts of OH/TN
   Valley may continue eastward and spread into parts of VA/NC/SC. If
   an organized convective system can be maintained, this could
   increase damaging wind potential during the afternoon/evening and an
   upgrade to Slight risk could be needed in later outlooks.

Another Severe Weather Event In-Store Thursday, March 25th

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. The first round of storms will be locally strong, but the main hazards will be in the form of locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds of 30+ MPH.

The atmosphere will have time to destabilize after this break. The next batch of storms will likely become severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The potential is there for some tornadoes to be strong and long-tracked.

Tornado parameters are very high around 7:00pm tomorrow, and there will be supercell development based on simulated radar data.

We ask that everyone stay weather aware tomorrow as there will be multiple Watches and Warnings issued. We will do our best to bring you the latest updates from the Weather Services on our Severe Page.

Flash Flood Watch In Effect

Ahead of our next weather-producer, a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for all of north Alabama beginning Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected. This on top of already saturated soil will make flash flooding a concern

Flood Watch
 National Weather Service Huntsville AL
 143 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021
 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250745-
 /O.NEW.KHUN.FF.A.0003.210325T0600Z-210326T0600Z/
 /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
 Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
 Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
 Including the cities of Russellville, Winchester, Fort Payne, Red
 Bay, Cullman, Town Creek, Cowan, Estill Springs, Huntsville,
 Sheffield, Arab, Sewanee, Decatur, Lynchburg, Athens, Muscle Shoals,
 Decherd, Fayetteville, Albertville, Guntersville, Boaz, Rainsville,
 Tuscumbia, Moulton, Florence, and Scottsboro
 143 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021
 …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
 THURSDAY NIGHT…
 The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a
 Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and southern middle
 Tennessee, including the following areas, in Alabama, Colbert,
 Cullman, DeKalb, Franklin AL, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence,
 Limestone, Madison, Marshall and Morgan. In southern middle
 Tennessee, Franklin TN, Lincoln and Moore.
 From 1 AM CDT Thursday through late Thursday night
 Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast early Thursday morning as a
 warm front lifts northwards through the Tennessee Valley. This
 round of rain will produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the
 area. This event will saturate the soils across the area. Another
 round of heavy rainfall is forecast later Thursday afternoon as
 severe storms approach from the west. These storms will be
 proficient rain producers. This additional rainfall will
 exacerbate any ongoing issues and lead to additional flooding
 issues Thursday afternoon and evening. 
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
 A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
 Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
 should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
 Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Wednesday

A summary of everything is available in a slideshow created by Andrew of the Team

https://onedrive.live.com/embed?cid=434931F6880ADF4C&resid=434931F6880ADF4C%2118078&authkey=ALbDZLTMO3MUzOs&em=2&wdAr=1.7777777777777777

It’s no secret that there has been grave concern regarding severe weather Wednesday. Ingredients and parameters are coming together for this to be a potentially dangerous weather day. We could see some dangerous thunderstorms that could produce significant wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

NWS HUN CWA DAY 2 OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
NWS BMX CWA DAY 2 OUTLOOK

SUMMARY/TIMING: For today, March 16th 2021, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for central Alabama south of Cullman, Gadsden and Anniston. Looking at a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for these areas. Brief damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible in this areas.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms will increase in coverage statewide late in the morning. The morning commute overall looks to be in good shape. There will be breaks in between the morning storms, which will cause instability to rise and put ingredients in place for severe thunderstorms. Expecting to see an increase in overall coverage and intensity during these late morning/afternoon thunderstorms.

Summary of expected hazards:

  • Damaging winds of 60-80 MPH
  • Tornadoes, some of which could be strong and long-tracked
  • Large hail, up to golf ball size
  • Flooding, especially in low-lying areas and areas that see repeated rainfall

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION/IMAGES

This is what the radar will look like from now until 1:00 PM Thursday

Simulated radar now through 1:00 PM Thursday

This is supercell composite radar, which is where supercell development is most likely given the parameters (Parameters being CAPE, high dew points, shear etc.)

Supercell composite radar Wednesday morning through 1:00 PM Thursday

This is the STP (Significant Tornado Parameters) index, indicating where tornado development is likely given the parameters in place. Also the Enhanced Helicity Index is showing where tornadoes could form and “tap in” to be long-tracked.

Significant Severe Weather Event Likely Wednesday

SUMMARY:

There is a threat for some strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, with a greater threat on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the threat will be mainly south of Cullman, and only a Marginal Threat (Level 1/5) for a severe thunderstorms. Gusty winds of 40-50 MPH and heavy rainfall will be the primary threat during this time.

On Wednesday, a more widespread and more intense chance for severe thunderstorms exists as a warm front moves north. Conditions will be favorable for large hail, damaging straight-line winds (70+ MPH), and tornadoes – one or two which could be strong.

CONCLUSION

  • Round 1/2- Marginal Risk for severe storms mainly south of Cullman to Alexander City. Primary threats: small hail, gusty winds, heavy rain
  • Round 2/2- Enhanced Risk for severe storms Coverage area-wide. All modes of severe weather possible, including damaging straight-line winds of 60-70 MPH, large hail, and tornadoes – one or two which could be strong. Timing: Beginning Wednesday afternoon lasting through the evening
  • Flash flooding threat: minimal due to

DISCUSSION

…SUMMARY…
    A broad area of severe weather potential -- including risk for large
    hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes -- is anticipated
    Wednesday from  the Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity eastward across the
    central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians.
 …Synopsis…
    A vigorous upper low moving across central portions of the U.S. will
    once again be the primary upper feature of interest, as it tracks
    from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity early, to southern
    Missouri through the end of the period.  Ahead of this system,
    moderately strong/accompanying flow will spread across the lower
    Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states with
    time.
 At the surface, a low is forecast to cross Oklahoma during the day,
    and then should cross the Ozarks through the evening eventually
    reaching the western Illinois vicinity by 18/12Z.  Widespread
    thunderstorms, and substantial/accompanying severe risk, can be
    expected in advance of this system.
 …The AR/LA vicinity eastward to portions of TN/GA and the FL
    Panhandle…
    Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing from Kansas
    southward to Texas ahead of the advancing upper system and
    associated cold front, and eastward across the central Gulf Coast
    states in a zone along a west-to-east warm front.  Some ongoing
    severe risk will likely exist at the start of the period.
 With time, as moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico
    beneath steepening lapse rates, modest heating will push
    surface-based CAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with a broad
    warm sector stretching from the AR/LA vicinity eastward to the
    southern Appalachians.  Convection is forecast to increase in
    response to the destabilization, as persistent UVV occurs not only
    in the vicinity of the cold and warm fronts, but also more broadly
    within the general warm-advection regime.
 Southerly low-level flow, veering and increasing to around 50 kt
    from the west/southwest at mid levels will provide shear favorable
    for supercells.  Additionally, ample low-level shear is expected to
    evolve through the day -- particularly near the aforementioned warm
    front which should drift northward across Arkansas and align
    west-northwest to east-southeast from far southern MO to central GA
    by early evening.  As such, tornado risk may be maximized near this
    boundary -- across the AR area during the day, and then later
    increasing eastward across AL and perhaps into GA as well, as
    low-level flow increases into the evening/overnight.  
 In addition to tornado potential -- including the risk for a couple
    of significant tornadoes across a broad area represented by the
    ENH/30% risk area, large hail and damaging winds will also occur in
    some areas.  Risk will continue through the overnight hours,
    tapering from west to east across the lower Mississippi Valley but
    continuing across the central Gulf Coast states and into the
    southern Appalachians through 18/12z.

Winter Storm Watch Posted For North/Northwest Alabama Wed Afternoon

edited to include graphics from NWS HUN

More additional wintry weather is likely beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Temperatures are more likely to be freezing for areas west of Interstate 65 during this time – those who have unfortunately had the worst of the previous ice storm.

For areas not included in the Watch, a “cold rain” is briefly expected but not for an extended amount of time and no significant impacts are expected at this time. Continue to check back for the latest updates

Winter Storm Watch From NWS HUN
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
903 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

ALZ001>005-171300-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0002.210217T2200Z-210218T1200Z/
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-
Including the cities of Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield,
Tuscumbia, Russellville, Red Bay, Moulton, Town Creek, and Athens
903 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin AL, Lawrence and
  Limestone counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerous travel conditions will redevelop
  quickly due to very cold ground and surface temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

TNZ076-096-097-171300-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0002.210218T0000Z-210218T1200Z/
Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Lynchburg, Fayetteville, Winchester,
Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs, and Cowan
903 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Moore, Lincoln and Franklin TN counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerous travel conditions will redevelop
  quickly due to very cold ground and surface temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.