A Slight Risk (Level 2/5) has been put in place by the Storm Prediction Center for much of Alabama on Sunday, June 25th.
Multiple rounds of strong-severe storms are expected in the late morning on Sunday then again Sunday night into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.
...OH Valley into the Mid South and MS/AL... A mid-level low/associated trough over the upper to mid MS Valley will move east-southeast into the central Great Lakes by early Monday morning. A belt of strong 500-mb flow will move through the base of the trough over the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and portions of the TN Valley. Large model variability is resulting in considerable uncertainty for this forecast with ongoing showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning from potentially the southwestern Great Lakes southward into the Mid South. With those caveats/concerns mentioned, a large reservoir of rich low-level moisture will reside from the lower MS Valley northward into the OH Valley in absence of any convective overturning during the morning. More aggressive model solutions for destabilization show the development of a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass developing from AR eastward through the Mid South and northward into the OH Valley. It seems likely some of this broad region will have a thunderstorm cluster with associated wind/hail risk deplete some of the potential instability. However, areas located on the periphery of the potential thunderstorm clusters/MCSs near residual outflow or on the front, will be favored areas for additional thunderstorms and a severe risk. It seems most probable that a concentrated area of wind-damage potential may reside over parts of the OH Valley southward into middle TN where the mid-level speed max is forecast to overspread the warm sector. Have aggressively expanded 5 and 15-percent wind probabilities into the upper OH Valley, MS/AL and into AR to account for both spatial uncertainty and the depiction by the last 6 model runs of the deterministic ECMWF and the latest HREF ensemble sshow several linear clusters moving across these corridors. By the mid evening, a gradual subsiding and confining of the severe risk is expected with the greatest risk perhaps shifting into parts of the lower MS Valley.