Heavy Rain Starts Overnight; Strong To Severe Storms Possible Through Wednesday Night

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SUMMARY: Prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will lead to instances of flooding. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the western/southwestern portions of the Coverage Area. Gusty winds will be possible through Wednesday night.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS: Flooding of flood-prone and drainage areas, gusty winds outside of thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms with large hail up to quarter size and damaging winds of 60 MPH or greater, and tornadoes.

AREAS AFFECTED: FOR THE FLOOD & WIND THREAT: All of Coverage Zone 1, 2, and 3. FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM & TORNADO THREAT: south and western portions of Coverage Zone 2. There is a higher risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across Greene, Hale, and Pickens Counties.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Excessive runoff could cause water ponding in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Sudden heavy rainfall could cause reductions in visibility for motorists. Flooding rivers, streams, and creeks could cause flooding issues in surrounding areas. Gusty winds could cause loose outdoor furniture and decorations to be blown away. Branches could be knocked down leading to isolated power outages. Severe thunderstorm winds can cause damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

DISCUSSION/GRAPHICS

Active weather pattern will begin overnight as periods of moderate to heavy rainfall move in around midnight. Rain will be widespread by the morning commute, leading to a very soggy start to the day. Rain will continue through mid-day, with a slight break before a squall line forms ahead of a cold front. Model guidance (shown below in graphics) shows most of the activity getting started by 4:00 PM to our west, with a gradual increase in instability from southwest to northeast.

As the system develops, winds will begin to increase. HRRR model guidance shows 20-30 MPH wind gusts.

The biggest concern with this system will be the rainfall. WPC has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall state-wide with a Moderate Risk for portions of west-central Alabama. Rainfall rates will be from 1 and a half to 2 inches with this system. It won’t be hard for flash flooding to occur giving this guidance – especially since we already have had previous days of rainfall. NWS already has flood products in effect for rivers in advance of the system.

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