We have been outlined in a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). A 2/5 Slight Risk has been outlined for northwest Alabama. Damaging winds and a low-end threat of a tornado are possible.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley... The airmass will be very dry to start the day across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but surface dewpoints will increase rapidly through the morning as low-level flow strengthens and brings 60s dewpoints northward. This will result in increasing instability by mid-afternoon as temperatures increase into the 80s south of the decaying overnight convection across the Lower Ohio Valley. A few supercells may develop on the southern end of this decaying activity during the afternoon. Low-level flow will be relatively weak (<20 knots), and surface flow quite veered, which may limit a more substantial tornado threat. However, strong mid-upper level flow should be sufficient for rotating updrafts and the potential for large hail and a few damaging wind gusts. Later in the evening, more substantial convection is expected to develop along the advancing front and quickly become linear. The primary threat with this later activity will likely be damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two with elongating and curving low-level hodographs forecast.