Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Wednesday

A summary of everything is available in a slideshow created by Andrew of the Team

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It’s no secret that there has been grave concern regarding severe weather Wednesday. Ingredients and parameters are coming together for this to be a potentially dangerous weather day. We could see some dangerous thunderstorms that could produce significant wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

NWS HUN CWA DAY 2 OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
NWS BMX CWA DAY 2 OUTLOOK

SUMMARY/TIMING: For today, March 16th 2021, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for central Alabama south of Cullman, Gadsden and Anniston. Looking at a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for these areas. Brief damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible in this areas.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms will increase in coverage statewide late in the morning. The morning commute overall looks to be in good shape. There will be breaks in between the morning storms, which will cause instability to rise and put ingredients in place for severe thunderstorms. Expecting to see an increase in overall coverage and intensity during these late morning/afternoon thunderstorms.

Summary of expected hazards:

  • Damaging winds of 60-80 MPH
  • Tornadoes, some of which could be strong and long-tracked
  • Large hail, up to golf ball size
  • Flooding, especially in low-lying areas and areas that see repeated rainfall

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION/IMAGES

This is what the radar will look like from now until 1:00 PM Thursday

Simulated radar now through 1:00 PM Thursday

This is supercell composite radar, which is where supercell development is most likely given the parameters (Parameters being CAPE, high dew points, shear etc.)

Supercell composite radar Wednesday morning through 1:00 PM Thursday

This is the STP (Significant Tornado Parameters) index, indicating where tornado development is likely given the parameters in place. Also the Enhanced Helicity Index is showing where tornadoes could form and “tap in” to be long-tracked.