...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND MID-SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon into tonight across parts of Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas into western/northern Minnesota. The remnants of Cristobal may pose a risk for a few tornadoes across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Mid-South region. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Have expanded low tornado probabilities northward across the Mid-South region toward the Ozarks. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal are forecast by the National Hurricane Center to advance generally northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley region, reaching parts of the Ozarks late tonight. On its eastern periphery, relatively large low-level hodographs will be supportive of a few low-topped supercells with a tornado risk, mainly this afternoon/early evening when stronger boundary layer destabilization occurs and boosts parcel accelerations.
- Hazards: Gusty winds, heavy rain/flooding, brief tornadoes
- Timing: Now through tonight
- Threat: Slight (Level 2/5)
TD Cristobal continues to move north across the Lower MS Valley as of this writing, with the outer bands stretching all the way the Marion/Fayette county AL. There is currently a Wind Advisory in effect for portions of west-central Alabama to account for winds over 30 MPH in these areas. Elsewhere across the Coverage Area, we will see winds from the 10-20 MPH range.
As TD Cristobal makes its turn to the east, conditions will become more favorable for brief tornado development. In addition, tropical rains can be expected, resulting in runoff and a few instances of flooding.