UPDATE 3:00pm New outlook barely includes the northern half of Alabama

UPDATE 11:51am: New outlook from SPC includes the southern-middle Tennessee counties but it does not stretch into Alabama.

Summary

A Marginal RIsk (Level 1/5) has been outlined for all of northern Alabama and the northeastern part of central Alabama in the BMX CWA.

Alabama Outlook
HUN Outlook
BMX Outlook

Expected Hazards

Winds of 40-60 MPH will be the primary threat, along with a secondary threat for large hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

Timing

Beginning this afternoon lasting through this evening. The threat should be over by 10:00 pm in the eastern part of our Coverage Area with the passage of the frontal boundary.

Discussion

A weak frontal boundary will move towards the state early this afternoon and stall. There is only modest instability in place to support thunderstorm development, but given daytime highs approaching 80F this should help support convective activity. This in support of the instability could lead to brief damaging wind gusts and large hail. Not looking at a tornado threat with this one given little to no shear in place. Also, given the speed nature of the storms and little saturation in place, not looking at much of a flood threat as well – however with all thunderstorms heavy rain is certainly possible.