Wet And Stormy Weekend Ahead

Aiming To Prepare, Not To Scare

Wet And Stormy Weekend Ahead

We’re still in the middle of severe weather season across the Tennessee Valley and Mother Nature does not want seem to let up on weekend storms. This weekend looks to be a soaker with some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. If you do not want the “techy nerdy geeky weather details”, scroll down to the TL;DR (Too Long Didn’t Read) section.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a good portion of central Alabama in an Enhanced Risk with the rest of Alabama in the Slight Risk. This is subject to change in the next 24 hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/AL_swody3.png

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook for Alabama

Model data has been fairly consistent over the past few runs showing the precipitation begins in northwest Alabama Saturday morning and increases in coverage throughout the day. We will likely see plentiful sunshine across the central portion of Alabama prior to the arrival of storms which will lead to increased instability across these areas.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/18Z-20180412_NAMSE_prec_radar-45-72-50-100.gif

Model run 9:00am Saturday through 1:00pm Sunday

Supercell composite radar shows where severe thunderstorm development is favorable during these times:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/18Z-20180412_NAMSE_con_scp-45-75-50-100.gif

Tornado paramaters are not overall impressive with this system. There is a higher threat of this along the Gulf Coast:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/18Z-20180412_NAMSE_con_stp-42-75-50-100.gif

Let’s not forget about rainfall. This system will be a soaker, producing from 4 to 6 inches of rainfallĀ NAMSE_prec_precacc_084

TL;DR

WHEN TO EXPECT STORMS:

  • Between 8-10am for northwest and west Alabama
  • Between 10am and noon for north-central and central Alabama while storms are still ongoing across the northwest
  • Between 2pm and 3pm will be the the most widespread coverage of showers and storms will be.

WHAT TO EXPECT:

Based on current data, torrental rainfall will be the most dominant threat. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the main concern with severe storms that do develop, although large hail and a quick spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out.

Stay tuned to Alabama Weather Prediction for the latest updates. Keep up with our Live event and on social media for the latest updates.

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